Rating agency Standard & Poor's on Tuesday said fiscal pressures would weigh on India's credit quality. In a report released today, the agency said that a resumption of a timely and sustainable fiscal consolidation plan that resulted in lower debt and interest burden, and further reforms to boost economic growth could improve India's sovereign ratings.
True sustainable growth can come only through an increase in productivity, and such increases can happen only through innovations, technical and organisational, in all sectors of the economy - industry, services and agriculture, writes Ajit Balakrishnan.
India's service sector activity accelerated slightly in April largely driven by a quicker increase in new order inflows, which also underpinned a faster expansion in employment, a monthly survey said on Tuesday. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Services PMI Business Activity Index reached 58.7 in April, up from 58.5 in March, indicating a sharp and stronger expansion in service sector output.
While retaining India's sovereign rating at 'BBB-' with a negative outlook, S&P said there is at least a one-in-three likelihood of a downgrade within the next 12 months.
ITC stock slipped over 4 per cent on Thursday (February 8) after British American Tobacco (BAT) said it could sell some of its stake in the company, recovering partially in trade. The stock of the cigarette-to-hotels conglomerate traded at Rs 420 levels, rising 1.3 per cent in intraday deals as compared to the S&P BSE Sensex that traded flat for most part of the day. The development, meanwhile, saw Jefferies downgrade the stock to 'hold' from 'buy' earlier with a target price of Rs 430, down a huge 17.3 per cent from its earlier price target of Rs 520.
Hedge fund redemptions and margin calls on leveraged investors will trigger further selling.
The entire basket is likely to suffer for sometime and offer lucrative short positions.
'China's investment destination image the world over has taken a beating, therefore investors feel India is a safe haven for investments.' 'FDI is at an all-time high in India.' 'Now after such poor ratings, this FDI amount will fall.' 'Therefore, I am saying these things are happening at China's behest.'
Retaining India's sovereign rating at the lowest investment grade, global agency S&P on Tuesday warned that a downgrade is likely for the country if its political climate worsens and pace of fiscal reforms slows down.
India on Friday made a strong pitch for a sovereign rating upgrade with Moody's and also questioned the parameters based on which the US-based agency accords ratings, sources said on Friday. Ahead of its annual review of the sovereign rating, Moody's Investors Service representatives met Indian government officials during which the officials highlighted the reforms and strong fundamentals of the Indian economy. A higher rating for India would mean the nation is less riskier, translating into lower interest rates on borrowings.
Most analysts have downgraded the stock of SBI Cards and Payments (SBI Card) as the credit card issuer posted weak results during the December quarter (Q3) of financial year 2023-24 (FY24). The sub-par show, analysts said, was for the eighth straight quarter. With this, they have slashed their earnings estimates by as much as 20 per cent over FY24-26 amid near-term pressure points in the company's growth outlook.
S&P is the only of the three major credit agencies with a 'negative' outlook on India.
The minister, who was addressing a press conference on the sidelines of the IMF-World Bank annual meetings, said that there would be lot of action on the reforms front in the next 24 months, the timeline provided by the S&P.
The budget has strong growth impulses and response of the economy is positive.
Keen to prevent a downgrade of India's sovereign rating by Standard & Poor's (S&P), which could trigger an exodus of foreign investors, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has told the Congress party there is no option but to raise diesel prices by at least Rs 5 a litre after the Presidential election. The current diesel subsidy is Rs 9.13 per litre sold.
Days after keeping India's rating at lowest investment grade for 13th year in a row, the rating agency in a webinar said despite the contraction in GDP this year, the country continues to be an outperformer among the peer groups.
Market players said the sell-off was triggered by pessimism that the government may not be able to balance growth with macro-stability.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday cut its economic growth forecast for India to 9.5 per cent for the fiscal year to March 31, 2022 as the onset of a severe second COVID-19 wave cut into recovery momentum. This forecast for 2021-22 is lower than the 12.5 per cent growth in GDP that IMF had projected in April before the second wave took a grip. For 2022-23, IMF expects economic growth of 8.5 per cent, larger than the 6.9 per cent it had projected in April.
Weeks after it revised the rating outlook of two companies of embattled Adani group, S&P Global Ratings on Wednesday said it is watching for additional information on the conglomerate's governance and funding for any ratings action. Investors, it said, seek clarity on the credit impact of a string of allegations against the group in a short-seller report published in late January, and on the findings of a recently launched Supreme Court investigation. S&P Global published an FAQ-style commentary titled, "Adani Group: The Known Unknowns".
In a string of bold initiatives, the government, accused of a 'policy paralysis', first announced a steep 12 per cent, or Rs 5 per litre, increase in the regulated diesel prices on Thursday and a cap on subsided cooking gas usage.
The rupee declined for fourth day in a row by losing 16 paise to Rs 52.88 per dollar in early trade today, weighed down by dollar's gains overseas.
The rupee declined for fourth day in a row by losing 16 paise to Rs 52.88 per dollar in early trade today, weighed down by dollar's gains overseas.
The ratings are opinions that reflect the ability and willingness of the rated entity to meet financial obligations.
Investors shunned shares of Bajaj Finance on Friday, a day after the non-banking financial company (NBFC) reported a sharp contraction in its net interest margin (NIM) for the March quarter of the financial year 2023-24 (Q4FY24). The losses accounted for a fifth of the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex's 609-point loss. Most brokerages have tamed their earnings expectations for the next couple of quarters, after the management said it expected the pressure on NIMs to continue in the near term.
Shares of paint companies faced pressure, falling up to 5 per cent on the BSE in Monday's (February 26) intraday trade amid concerns that Grasim Industries' entry into the paint sector will intensify the competition. Asian Paints reached a 10-month low of Rs 2,850, slipping nearly 5 per cent after brokerage firm CLSA downgraded the stock following the Birla Opus launch. The paint maker's stock traded at its lowest level since April 28, 2023.
Amid rupee sliding below 64 to a dollar, global agency Standard & Poor's on Tuesday said it will maintain negative outlook for the country as currency depreciation is adversely impacting investor confidence.
The announcement by Standard & Poor's (S&P) on Wednesday to cut its outlook for India from stable to negative should cause no surprise, even though it comes barely five days after a similar exercise by Moody's, which had retained its outlook on India as stable.
Ratings agency Standard & Poor's on Monday cautioned that it could lower the sovereign ratings of countries like India, Japan and Malaysia, which 'are still to come out of the economic meltdown of 2008'.
Fall in oil prices is good news, as every $10/bbl price swing impacts the current account deficit by $8 billion.
With the first quarter earnings season coming to an end, the domestic equity markets would be driven by global trends and trading activity of foreign investors this week, analysts said. The movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude and the rupee against the dollar would also drive trends in the market. "Macroeconomic indicators, trends in global stock markets and FII activities will be pivotal in shaping market trends in the coming days," Pravesh Gour, senior technical analyst at Swastika Investmart Ltd, said.
The IMF on Tuesday cut India's economic growth forecast by 0.5 percentage points to 9 per cent for the current fiscal year, with its chief economist Gita Gopinath saying that the slight downgrade is mainly due to the impact of the spread of the Omicron variant. "If you look at the 2021-22 fiscal year, we have a slight downgrade of -0.5 percentage points and for the next fiscal year 2022-23 we have a slight upgrade of 0.5 percentage points. So, growth for the previous fiscal year is now nine per cent and for this year now is at nine per cent. We moved it up slightly," Gopinath told reporters during a news conference in Washington. In its latest update of World Economic Outlook on Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund has cut India's economic growth forecast to 9 per cent for the current fiscal year ending March 31, joining a host of agencies which have downgraded their projections on concerns over the impact of the spread of Omicron on business activity and mobility.
Chief Economic Advisor Krishnamurthy Subramanian said India's economy will witness a decline in the current fiscal, but the drop will be limited if there is an economic recovery in the October-March period.
'Investors need to be stock specific and should not rush to buy stocks at the current levels.'
S&P has maintained a stable outlook on the basis of their expectation that over the next two years the growth will remain strong and India will maintain its sound net external position and fiscal deficit will remain elevated but broadly in line with their forecast.
S&P Global Ratings has forecast India's economy to shrink by 5 per cent in the current fiscal. It, however, has projected GDP growth to be 8.5 per cent in 2021-22 and 6.5 per cent in 2022-23.
East European countries have better rating than India though their economies are not as stable as the latter.
India deserves a rating upgrade in view of improvement in macro-economic situation, the conservative outlook of Standard & Poor's notwithstanding, Finance Minister P Chidambaram said.
The Indian markets have seen a good run in the last three months with the S&P BSE Sensex rising around 7 per cent and the Nifty50 moving up 7.5 per cent. The next leg of the market rally from here on, analysts suggest, will be driven by a growth in corporate earnings over the next few quarters. That said, they do not expect material / sharp downgrades to India Inc's earnings estimates despite headwinds for the economy.
There is a "one in three" chance of a downgrade of the country's sovereign rating to junk status in the next two years.
Stating that an economic recession gripped global economy following the lockdowns due to COVID-19 pandemic, Fitch Ratings on Friday said the initial disruptions to regional manufacturing supply chains in China have now broadened to include local discretionary spending and exports.
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